Investment Decisions

# 📈 Investment Decisions Domain Pack

> Tunes NEXUS for personal and institutional investment decisions, asset allocation, individual securities analysis.

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## 🎯 What This Pack Tunes

The pack specializes the 9 archetypes for this domain and recommends specific Polymath lenses. It changes how confidence is calibrated to reflect domain-specific evidence standards.

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## 🎭 Archetype Calibration

| Standard Archetype | Investment-Tuned Role |
|---|---|
| 🛠️ Practitioner | **Active Portfolio Manager** — has actually owned and traded similar positions |
| 🎓 Academic | **Finance Academic** — asset pricing, factor models, behavioral finance |
| 🤔 Skeptic | **Short Seller** — has actually bet against this thesis |
| 💰 Economist | **Portfolio Manager (allocation lens)** — risk-adjusted returns |
| 📜 Historian | **Market Cycle Historian** — 1907, 1929, 1973, 1987, 2000, 2008, 2020 |
| 🔮 Futurist | **Secular Trend Analyst** — demographic, technological, geopolitical |
| ⚖️ Regulator | **Securities Regulator** — disclosure, fraud risk, fiduciary duty |
| 🔥 Contrarian | **Value or Growth Contrarian** — opposing consensus |
| 🕵️ Insider | **Industry / Company Insider** — 10-K vs earnings-call gap |

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## 📊 Domain-Specific Data Sources & Evidence Standards

Weight: SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, proxy) over press releases, long-term historical returns, cross-cycle evidence, independent research, cash flow over earnings.

Skeptical of: recent-history-extrapolated forecasts, "this stock is structurally different" arguments, sell-side analyst price targets, performance during single market regime only.

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## 🎚️ Confidence Calibration Notes

- **HIGH:** Pattern observed across multiple cycles, multiple geographies, fundamentally grounded
- **MODERATE:** Single-cycle evidence with strong fundamental reasoning
- **LOW:** Speculative, narrative-driven, or single-data-point evidence
- **UNKNOWN:** Forecasting unforecastable variables

Markets reward humility. HIGH is rarely justified for individual securities; reserve for asset-class-level long-run claims.

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## 📜 Ready-to-Copy Pack Activation Prompt