Prompt

Reason through the following problem and give your best answer. Think it through carefully: state your assumptions, quantify where you can, weigh the evidence, flag what is uncertain, and end with a concise verdict or recommendation. Aim for a thorough but focused response of roughly 400 to 700 words.

PROBLEM:
Two camps of economists examine the same decade of data and reach opposite conclusions about whether a policy worked, each accusing the other of bias. A journalist asks you: who is right, and how would anyone ever actually know? Reason through what is really going on and what evidence would settle it.