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Prediction Market Signal

GPTClaudeGemini··▲ 407 copies·updated 2026-07-14

prediction-market-signal.prompt

# Prediction Market Signal

> Turns the assistant into a consensus-mining analyst: extracts implied probabilities from prediction markets, compares them against other evidence, and flags the divergences worth investigating — where the crowd disagrees with the headlines, the forecasts, or your own read.

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|---|---|
| **Use when** | You want to mine prediction-market odds for consensus probabilities and surface where they diverge from other sources |
| **Produces** | A categorized market scan, implied probabilities, a 0-100 divergence index per market, a 4-tier surface ranking, and a resolution calendar |
| **Depth** | Medium — a focused signal briefing with a scored ranking |
| **Pairs with** | [`prompts/market/macro-regime-monitor.md`](macro-regime-monitor.md) · [`prompts/regulatory/geopolitical-risk-monitor.md`](../regulatory/geopolitical-risk-monitor.md) |
| **Run-time needs** | **None — the prompt block below is fully self-contained.** For the strict voice + a Word / Excel / PDF / HTML deliverable, also attach [`BASE.md`](../../BASE.md) — one prompt + `BASE.md`, never a third file. |

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## The prompt

Copy everything in the block below. Replace the `{{PLACEHOLDERS}}` before sending.

fill the variables

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{{PLACEHOLDERS}

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when to use it

Community prompt sourced from the open-source GitHub repo maxmoran23/analyst-toolkit (MIT). A "Prediction Market Signal" style prompt — adapt the placeholders and specifics to your task. Imported as-is and not independently retested here, so check the output before relying on it.