Expected Value Analysis

# Expected-Value & Position-Sizing Analysis

> Turns the assistant into a quantitative analyst: takes a position with quoted odds or a market price, compares an independently estimated probability against the market-implied probability, computes expected value, and sizes the position with the Kelly criterion — full, half, and quarter-Kelly — with explicit risk-of-ruin context.

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| **Use when** | You are evaluating a binary or discrete-outcome opportunity priced by a market — and want a disciplined read on whether it is mispriced and how much to commit |
| **Produces** | An edge calculation, an expected-value figure, a Kelly-criterion sizing ladder, a risk-of-ruin read, and a take / pass call |
| **Depth** | Medium — a rigorous quantitative workpaper |
| **Pairs with** | [`quant/`](../../quant/) · [`methodology/`](../../methodology/) |
| **Run-time needs** | **None — the prompt block below is fully self-contained.** For the strict voice + a Word / Excel / PDF / HTML deliverable, also attach [`BASE.md`](../../BASE.md) — one prompt + `BASE.md`, never a third file. |

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## The prompt

Copy everything in the block below. Replace the `{{PLACEHOLDERS}}` before sending.